Paul Shannon sits down with lender-turned-operator Ryan Duff to unpack how lenders really size risk and how LPs can use the same lens. Ryan financed ~$4B+ across cycles before launching Seaport, and he explains why trailing 3–6 month economic occupancy (physical vacancy + concessions + loss-to-lease) tells you more than any glossy OM. Join us to dive into debt yield, DSCR reality vs. pitch decks, the broker-driven “falsified inputs” fiasco and subsequent lender cleanup, and why he prioritizes local, vertically integrated operators with disciplined leverage and cash buffers.
Key Takeaways:
- Underwrite like a lender: focus on economic occupancy (vacancy, concessions, loss-to-lease), not just IRR/EM multiples
- Expenses are mostly knowable; deals are won/lost on the top-line and honest reporting of rent integrity
- Debt terms follow the inputs: DSCR, debt yield, and recent trailing performance drive survivability
- Protect yourself: vet the GP first (local, cycled deals, vertical ops, conservative leverage, transparency)
- Industry shift: tighter lender verification post-froth (less room for “massaged” rent rolls), more equity skin-in-the-game
- Bridge debt isn’t evil, operator fit + execution speed must match the capital structure
Disclaimer
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