In this exclusive webinar release, Paul Shannon moderates a market check with brokers Beau Beery, Reid Bennett, and Jakob Andersen. The panel covers where multifamily deals are actually clearing in late 2025, why the bid ask gap is narrowing, and how underwriting has shifted from headline cap rates to year one cash on cash, DCR, and debt yield. They compare Sunbelt supply waves to steadier Midwest fundamentals, walk through valuation reality checks sellers must face, and explain why most 2026 activity will be motivated sales and selective distress rather than a fire sale. The group also digs into operational costs, staffing shortages, financing paths into 2026, and what LPs should demand from GPs.
Key Takeaways
- Bid ask is closing as loan maturities force decisions and rate volatility calms enough for buyers to plan
- Underwrite to cash on cash, DCR, debt yield first and sanity check taxes, insurance, payroll, and true vacancy before quoting a cap rate
- Supply matters more at scale: heavy Sunbelt deliveries pressure B assets while Midwest occupancy stays supported by limited new B stock and tight single family inventory
- Financing mix for 2026 will be agency for stabilized and selective bridge for assets that cannot qualify, with realistic reserves and timelines
- Expect more transactions and some distress in 2026, but not a broad capitulation; LPs should vet operators with downturn experience and transparent decision trees on sell, refi, or hold
Disclaimer
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